Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
